By and large
the previous year was a year of crisis escalation, brought forth by the
emergence of new sources of tension not only in diplomacy but also in actual
military conflict. On the one hand, fresh sources of armed engagement and
humanitarian issues had world leaders worried overnight (ISIS beyond Syria and
Iraq, Russian intervention in Syria, migrant crisis in Europe). These events were not predicted before 2015.
2016 will be
marked by an increase in local conflicts, like in Ukraine and in the Arabian
Peninsula where the rift between Sunni and Shia Muslims will intensify. In
fact, as of press time, Saudi Arabia has cut off all diplomatic ties with Iran,
the latter infuriated over the execution of a prominent Shia cleric. It is
expected to be joined by other Sunni majority countries in the Middle East. This
year might just be the time for the spreading of these conflicts to more states.
The presidential
elections in the United States will put on hold major foreign policy decisions,
as the American public gets distracted by the convoluted race to the White
House. As for the exiting American president, Obama will protect what he has
accomplished in 2015, including the rapprochement with Iran and Cuba.
As the
United States continues to be rejected in many areas of the world, the
leadership vacuum that it will create will give opportunities to other major
powers, and with it, a new era of anti-West geopolitics will emerge. The post-American
century is an irreversible occurrence now as other major powers like Russia,
China, and Brazil take on responsibilities beyond their typical spheres of
influence. In the military sphere, Russia has re-entered the Middle East in a
big way, while China will now formally launch the Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB), aimed at rivaling the IMF and World Bank.
The global
economy is expected to be ‘disappointing
and uneven’ in 2016 because of the continuing slowdown in China,
sluggishness in world trade, the threat of rising interest rates in the US, the
ongoing fall of oil prices, and the vulnerability of emerging economies to
absorb economic shocks, according to the IMF.
General elections
will take place in Taiwan, a Western-backed state that is unsure about its
identity vis-à-vis China. The emerging leader might give Beijing fresh fears
regarding the longstanding One-China policy. The UK public will go to the polls
to decide whether to stay or leave the European Union, while in the
Philippines, presidential elections will decide whether a future leader will
continue to provoke China and further impress the United States for its own
benefit.
Islamic
State (ISIS) is expected to be put on hold territorially in Syria and Iraq,
thanks to Russia’s military intervention. However, it might gain influence
beyond the region as other terrorist groups (like Boko Haram in Nigeria, and
other groups from Somalia to terror groups in South East Asia) pledge their
allegiance to Daesh.
The United
States and NATO will further infuriate Moscow as it decides on sending nuclear
weapons to Poland, a former Warsaw Pact member. As a result of Washington’s
antagonizing policies in Europe, Russia will further invest in its armed
forces, which might trigger a new, expensive, and unnecessary arms race in
continental Europe.
Europe’s
most powerful leader, Angela Merkel, is expected to leave office after three
successive terms. What this might mean for Europe is a change in policy towards
Russia (sanctions), the migrant crisis, the German commitment to the entire
Eurozone project and Berlin’s attitude towards economically and socially
troubled states like Spain, Greece, and Italy.
