It is perhaps fair to say the Arab Spring was such a missed
opportunity, and in many ways, it is.
The Arab
Spring was supposed to be the vanguard for change in the complex politics
of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It was launched on a
platform of Arab democracy (as opposed to American democracy) that will instigate
a wave of change, from free speech to economic opportunities.
Despite its disassociation from Western grand plans for the
region, the Arab Spring was nevertheless glorified in the West. The revolution
took everyone by surprise – including President Barack Obama himself. And it
was almost hijacked by the Western mainstream media (BBC, CNN, Fox) as
something that the West endorsed, especially with the exaggerated role that
technology played to make it happen. They may have supported the revolution at
a later point, but certainly
did not play a role in its creation.
But some four years since the whole saga began in Tunisia,
what we find is a more confused Western, and especially American, policy in the
MENA region. For starters, the United States is still a big supporter of
whatever Israel does (occasional wars against its neighbors, assassination of
foreign leaders); it has a very good military relationship with Sunni Saudi
Arabia regardless of Riyadh actions in the region; it used to support ‘moderates’
in such countries as Iraq and Syria where the
same moderates have transformed them into extremism and ISIS; and now it is
negotiating a historic nuclear deal with Iran, it’s supposed arch-nemesis in
the region.
The politics of Obama’s final years in office
Opposed by both Israel and Saudi Arabia, the latest
Iranian nuclear deal is being praised as a landmark breakthrough in Middle
East policy. Notwithstanding the merits of such a deal, the agreement with Iran
requires a deeper look especially since Obama’s days in the office is in 2016.
Before his second term started in 2012, Obama pulled out of
Afghanistan in late 2011 – some 3 years later than what he had promised during
his fight for presidential candidacy in 2008, and just a few months before he was
to reassume office at the White House. Indeed, when policy is at the mercy of
politics, things ‘suddenly’ get done.
The rush to accomplish things before the time is out
A clearly defined United States’ policy aside, the upcoming
US presidential race will certainly shake things up, with more policies being
concluded and other surprises being taken into consideration. For instance, we
might see a Cuban breakthrough as America pursues
normalization with Cuba, an island nation long been under the economic embargo
of the United States. Perhaps we can also see a softening of American policy
toward Russia and Ukraine to avoid a political backlash for the Democrats in
the upcoming presidential elections, or the closing
of Guantanamo Bay prison, a promise made by Obama since his 2008
nomination.
On April 12, Hillary
Clinton will formally announce her candidacy for the Democratic
presidential nomination, a move that will mark the de-fact start of the intense
presidential elections. Eight years since Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton
fought it out for the nomination, a woman in the White House is no doubt an interesting
thing to see. But we are not there yet: big promises are set to entertain again,
just like how Obama promised the impossible before. Conversely, the remaining
19 months will be a thrilling time to see what gets accomplished in the final
days of Obama’s presidency.
On a related note: The curious case of Netanyahu’s Congress stunt
To gain political ground for his party once more, America’s
main ally in the region, Israel’s hysterical Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
expressed his opposition to the US-Iran nuclear deal in a highly emotional
speech before the US Congress. The same tactic of ‘getting things done’ at a critical
moment persuaded Netanyahu to grandstand in the receptive US Congress to gain
political leverage before a major election.
Unfortunately for him, Netanyahu’s Congress stunt did not
grain traction among the wider American establishment. Beyond the shock and awe
of his emotional speech calling for a strike against Iran (as always), the
spotlight went to the fact that his US Congress speech was not endorsed by the
White House (he actually bypassed
Obama on this), that the war-hungry Republicans invited Netanyahu to make
the speech, and that Obama has since pointed out that all foreign policy
decisions should be endorsed by the White House.
